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Dice superstitions

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Jadehellbringer

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« Reply #45 on: <09-23-10/1305:00> »
OK, ok, I'll give you two examples of Hellbie Dice. And hopefully you'll understand a little better.

Mind you, these are only two of many.

1) Clan Trials, in Spokane, WA- summer 2005. I'm acting as the opposing force while a player takes part in a Trial. He's in a Thor. I'm in a Kraken, with ten light autocannons. For those not familiar, these guns jam permanently on a roll of 2. I fire all ten at long range, hoping to sandblast his already-damaged armor and hurt him before he can even respond.

Jamming one or two is to be expected. Three or four, a bit hard to imagine, but plausible.

Well, I jammed SEVEN. Including ALL FIVE in the right arm. On the FIRST SHOTS FIRED.

With only three cannons remaining, the Thor had an easy round. The dice were melted via pocket-torch in the parking lot outside of Merlyns Games, and to my knowledge are still a small brown puddle on the asphalt to this very day.

2) An online Trial via Megamek,  winter 2004.. My opponent, a Clan Wolf player, is in a Mad Cat E. I, however, roll the old MFUK Black Knight IIC, for some amusement. One map only- the old Citytech map, with the big concrete pad in the middle. I move first- and run out onto the concrete, turn, and head up towards him to bring my short-range battery into play. I need a 3 to not fall down and skid on pavement- and biff it. Crash to the ground on my rear, taking a pilot hit in the process. Skid destroys the right rear torso armor, critical hit, AMS ammo. Two more pilot hits, torso destroyed (fortunately, standard engine!). Ow, right? Well, the rest of the skid destroyed the LEFT rear torso armor, critical hit, SRM ammo. Two more pilot hits, torso destroyed.

I'm now unconscious, need an 11 to wake up, on my rear, with both arms and side torsos destroyed.

And now the Mad Cat takes it's first steps of the game. FML.

Hellbie Dice: Needing a 3 and rolling a 2, needing an 11 and rolling a 10.
Not to be demanding, but can you please point that Panther Assault Cannon somewhere other than my groin?


Usda Beph

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« Reply #46 on: <09-23-10/1317:17> »
Yeah... I've done that too! Any Mech design at our table named Jupiter dies by head shot! Including a 190T Super Heavy. Did I mention this happens at Gauss or LRM long range & before the Jupiter has delivered a single point of damage often before a shot has been fired from the Jupiter! Now I'm not sure if thats a dice horror story or something else! :)
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The_Gun_Nut

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« Reply #47 on: <09-23-10/1320:21> »
What the simian said. Not to mention that dice are 'pipped' so that all opposite sides equal 7 so that the balance is as equalized as can be.

In an SPC (Statistical Process Control) Class I was in the teacher brought in 4 d6 and everyone in the class made 10 rolls. When the totals were calculated our Rbar(statistical average) was 4.8. I asked why so high? The teach was puzzled cause they normally averaged 4.3. Turns out 2 of the dice had no 1 or 2. They had 3,3,4,4,5,6. But statistically you will average 4.3 when rolling d6s

My clan wolf faction dice is an anomily then. Because I had more head hits with them than eny other set of dice ever! I miss those dice!
[/quote]Emphasis mine.

The numbers per pair of facings is equal, but the mass of each face is not.  A '1' pip mass does not equal the '6' pip mass.  Nor does it equal any of the other pips (in this, we are assuming "pips" means missing mass within the face as a "hole").  The 40 rolls made were insufficient to truly see the average with sufficient confidence.  Not that you might have hit the average by random chance, just that confidence was not high enough.

If the dice have an odd shape dug out or have the numbers painted on, then the previous text I mentioned will not apply.  Those numbers only apply to the pipped dice.  Any others will have to be taken on their own merits (assuming someone tests them sufficiently).
There is no overkill.

Only "Open fire" and "I need to reload."

Usda Beph

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« Reply #48 on: <09-23-10/1438:31> »
But the 7 pips (both sides total) equal the other faces total mass loss when combined. The proof is in the numbers I have on a usual tumble, a near even # of 6 & 1s, as many 5 as 2, and 3 or 4


A fault in the logic being used is that the Piant used to 'pip' a casino die adds weight to a side so the same logic, though less intense would still tip a die to one side more than another.

As for my qualifications on the subject of Statistics & probability, I have taken two statistics courses for work & set up an SPC program used for our prototype Machine shop. Running SPC now for over 24 years. I see trends almost as fast as the programs can calculate the numbers ;D ( yeah... just a little bragging.)
« Last Edit: <09-23-10/1503:31> by Usda Beph »
Yeah, I'm A Minotaur! You Gotta Beef with that?
I'm a Minotaur not a bully!
I studied at the Rocky Mountain Culinary School.I specialized in Seafood.
My Dad worked out of el Toro In New Mexico.

The_Gun_Nut

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« Reply #49 on: <09-23-10/1601:20> »
No, each face, looked at separately, has it's own mass.  To truly view the probabilities, you can't treat the die as a point mass anymore.  Each face has a different amount of mass, this changes the center of mass of the object, if that term makes more sense to you.  They don't balance out, because the COM is not the physical center of the die when pips are removed.

An abstract calculation on a computer won't show this (unless you are using some really nice physics software to model the dice, and not just a number generator), a large number of physical dice must be rolled.  If you'd like, I can go through a dice rolling exercise this week post the results.  I have at least 5 different types of dice (from small, rounded and pipped to casino) to use.  Since I don't have a bunch of people to help me, it will take me a week at least to garner 100,000+ die rolls (if not longer).
There is no overkill.

Only "Open fire" and "I need to reload."

Critias

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« Reply #50 on: <09-23-10/1603:23> »
But the 7 pips (both sides total) equal the other faces total mass loss when combined. The proof is in the numbers I have on a usual tumble, a near even # of 6 & 1s, as many 5 as 2, and 3 or 4


A fault in the logic being used is that the Piant used to 'pip' a casino die adds weight to a side so the same logic, though less intense would still tip a die to one side more than another.

As for my qualifications on the subject of Statistics & probability, I have taken two statistics courses for work & set up an SPC program used for our prototype Machine shop. Running SPC now for over 24 years. I see trends almost as fast as the programs can calculate the numbers ;D ( yeah... just a little bragging.)
It's not an issue of total pips on two sides equalling one another, it's an issue of poorly (read: cheaply) made dice that don't have the same weight on any one side.  Casino dice have their pips indented differently, the paint within the pips applied differently, etc, etc, so that they'll roll true;  their livelihood depends on it.

Your average cheap-ass gamer dice, or especially expensive-ass gamer dice with strange symbols on theminstead of just numbers, don't.  They're novelty items, not "real" dice.  Probability theories aside, the simple fact is they're imperfect dice.  

It's not a question of logic or qualifications, it's a matter of not all dice being created equal.  It's also not an issue of "a usual tumble," but rather of a long, long, series of tumbles over a long, long, period of time.  Some "gamer dice," particularly the small and cheap ones we all love to buy by the brick, have been shown to come up low in the past, over the course of thousands and thousands of rolls.

The_Gun_Nut

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« Reply #51 on: <09-23-10/1608:29> »
Thank you for stating that another way, Critias.  I'm not sure I was saying it properly (ok, typing).

Dammit, now I'm curious.  I have to do the dice experiment, now.  Will keep you posted on details.
There is no overkill.

Only "Open fire" and "I need to reload."

Welshman

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« Reply #52 on: <09-23-10/2246:48> »
Directed Dice Luck. The setting is the CBT Fan Council '62 game (Think a BT MMPORG via posts with each player playing an entire Faction (MegaCorp).

The target is the McKenna-class BattleShip. In BT there are only about one or two other spaceships that are badder assed than the McKenna and none of them have a five century legacy. There were about fifteen of them in the game.

In the entire course of the game (about three odd years of real time), every time a McKenna entered combat it was destroyed. Even when two faced off against eachother, they both died.

The dice just hated the McKenna
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Critias

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« Reply #53 on: <09-24-10/0049:08> »
Of course, that might've just been everyone focusing fire on the McKenna, too (it's hard to blame 'em!).

Welshman

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« Reply #54 on: <09-24-10/0104:37> »
Of course, that might've just been everyone focusing fire on the McKenna, too (it's hard to blame 'em!).

All the space battles were done via simple resolution. All random, the McKenna's just got unlucky.
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Critias

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« Reply #55 on: <09-24-10/0105:55> »
Of course, that might've just been everyone focusing fire on the McKenna, too (it's hard to blame 'em!).

All the space battles were done via simple resolution. All random, the McKenna's just got unlucky.
Huh.  Fair enough, then.

I figured maybe they just fell prey to "Assault-itis," where everyone sees the Awesome, Atlas, Battlemaster, etc, and says "Oh (*#$%&" and just opens fire.  ;)

Chaotic Insane

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« Reply #56 on: <09-24-10/0746:27> »
^that happened to me at one of my first cons. Set my atlas down in a mechgrinder and the next round all that was left was my head, gyro, and legs.
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Usda Beph

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« Reply #57 on: <09-24-10/0815:13> »
No, each face, looked at separately, has it's own mass.  To truly view the probabilities, you can't treat the die as a point mass anymore.  Each face has a different amount of mass, this changes the center of mass of the object, if that term makes more sense to you.  They don't balance out, because the COM is not the physical center of the die when pips are removed.

An abstract calculation on a computer won't show this (unless you are using some really nice physics software to model the dice, and not just a number generator), a large number of physical dice must be rolled.  If you'd like, I can go through a dice rolling exercise this week post the results.  I have at least 5 different types of dice (from small, rounded and pipped to casino) to use.  Since I don't have a bunch of people to help me, it will take me a week at least to garner 100,000+ die rolls (if not longer).
Under SPC, 25 groups will generate a good Rbar and control range per group. Use dice in groups of 4, Your average should be around 3.7 IIRC +.5. a group of 25 samples can give you a good ball park CPK score. (CPK will tell you the number of probable hits within the control range per thousand, millions or even billions :o!) Save yourself some time. ;D

Smaller dice would be affected by weight loss more than the standard die, and the standard die would be more prone that than the casino die even if pips were drilled instead of painted.

Please understand I'm not trying to be a know it all. I have just done statistics for nearly 2 decades. I am pretty sure I know numbers and how they role (pun intended). I'm just adding my experience to the conversation :)
« Last Edit: <09-24-10/0831:32> by Usda Beph »
Yeah, I'm A Minotaur! You Gotta Beef with that?
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I studied at the Rocky Mountain Culinary School.I specialized in Seafood.
My Dad worked out of el Toro In New Mexico.

Doc Chaos

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« Reply #58 on: <09-24-10/0839:10> »
So... statistics students know how to cheat better? ;D
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FastJack

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« Reply #59 on: <09-24-10/0907:13> »
So... statistics students know how to cheat better? ;D
Of course we do. ;)