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Estimating what the death/injuries would be for an unstopped-astral rift closure

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AirBreather

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« on: (17:31:49/06-30-16) »
Hello all

IIRC, when Ghostwalker bodily (activated and) entered the astral rift through the use of artifacts and his own magic, the backlash effect was stalled from releasing its full impact by the efforts of Aina Dupree (who could be sacrificed or something else altogether). That 'moderated' destructive effect in DeeCee still caused a few thousand deaths.

So... The thought is... What would happen if the effect was NOT stopped, by the immortal elves or anyone else? That a few groups of (mortal) shadowrunners had dropped off the artifacts for Ghostwalker instead?

I pulled up this thing (@ http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ ). It is a nuclear damage estimator. However, the population numbers are likely off (VITAS-scoured 20XX would still be lower population than today, I imagine) and I don't know what the upper limits on the (simulated) explosion would be.

Any ideas?

~AB

Crimsondude

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« Reply #1 on: (12:47:33/07-07-16) »
Something between this

http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=10&lat=38.8994353&lng=-77.0555449&hob_ft=0&crater=1&casualties=1&fallout=1&psi=200,20,5,1.5&zm=13

and this

http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=10&lat=38.8994353&lng=-77.0555449&hob_ft=0&crater=1&casualties=1&fallout=1&psi=200,20,5,1.5&zm=13

Basically, anywhere from 75-300,000 fatalities. That part of DeeCee would maintain its relatively low population density, so the biggest effect would be on the arcologies across the Potomac in Rosslyn. The model also doesn't sufficiently account for Rock Creek Park and Georgetown being sufficiently wooded that that part of Washington would all be on fire. You lose GWUH, a Level 1 trauma center, and a minimum of two-three river crossings and maybe all of them, which would cripple response efforts. Not to mention the fact that there was already a significant contingent of security personnel already en route and within the blast radius. There's also the matter of the blast possibly affecting the magical protections throughout the area and especially around Arlington National Cemetery that would affect the shedim activity in the region, especially in Arlington County, which is one of the largest in the world outside of Tehran.


I think I recall at one point even throwing a million-casualty figure around, but the collateral damage that would still be inflicted upon DeeCee would've been too great. The idea was to leave most of the area intact. I also recall the actual casualties were a few hundred, but I could be wrong. I didn't write that or else it would've been much lower.
« Last Edit: (12:50:31/07-07-16) by Crimsondude »

MijRai

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« Reply #2 on: (13:19:02/07-07-16) »
See, this is why I think the freelancers are amazing.  I love this kind of information.  Thanks, Crimsondude!
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Mirikon

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« Reply #3 on: (13:58:43/07-07-16) »
And all that before we find out what uncontrolled magical fallout does to people.
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Crimsondude

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« Reply #4 on: (09:31:58/07-12-16) »
Thanks, MijRai.

And all that before we find out what uncontrolled magical fallout does to people.
Indeed.


I never really got to expand on what happened to the people affected by the closure of the Rift at all. Oh well.
« Last Edit: (09:34:57/07-12-16) by Crimsondude »

AirBreather

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« Reply #5 on: (12:31:58/07-16-16) »
Something between this

http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=10&lat=38.8994353&lng=-77.0555449&hob_ft=0&crater=1&casualties=1&fallout=1&psi=200,20,5,1.5&zm=13

and this

http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=10&lat=38.8994353&lng=-77.0555449&hob_ft=0&crater=1&casualties=1&fallout=1&psi=200,20,5,1.5&zm=13

Basically, anywhere from 75-300,000 fatalities. That part of DeeCee would maintain its relatively low population density, so the biggest effect would be on the arcologies across the Potomac in Rosslyn. The model also doesn't sufficiently account for Rock Creek Park and Georgetown being sufficiently wooded that that part of Washington would all be on fire. You lose GWUH, a Level 1 trauma center, and a minimum of two-three river crossings and maybe all of them, which would cripple response efforts. Not to mention the fact that there was already a significant contingent of security personnel already en route and within the blast radius. There's also the matter of the blast possibly affecting the magical protections throughout the area and especially around Arlington National Cemetery that would affect the shedim activity in the region, especially in Arlington County, which is one of the largest in the world outside of Tehran.


I think I recall at one point even throwing a million-casualty figure around, but the collateral damage that would still be inflicted upon DeeCee would've been too great. The idea was to leave most of the area intact. I also recall the actual casualties were a few hundred, but I could be wrong. I didn't write that or else it would've been much lower.

A bit late, but... Thanks, Crimsondude!

I'll keep those numbers handy.

~AB