In the end, numbers showing the odds of causing a glitch with the new Edge move isn't that relevant, since people still like taking risks. Or not. And you may spend 1 Edge to force a reroll on the opponent's side, or save up and go for that sure-win yourself with turning a 4 into a 5. The argument 'the bigger the dicepool, the bigger the glitch chance' might be based on wrong intel and can be countered with numbers, but the feeling people have to the actual odds and the willingness to roll the dice, is not something this math can cover.
I can say as fact 'glitch chances lower with bigger dicepools', but I can't say 'the odds are too poor'. I CAN say that I personally don't like the odds so likely would never use this move, but that's an opinion, not a fact. And even then they are odds. Just because 5 hits on 6 Spirit dice was rare, didn't make it less of a risk and painful event when it happened and then the mage got the bad luck of 1 hit on 21 (thanks to a reroll) dice. So I do agree that statistics aren't everything. There's a reason I tend to focus on '1/X for A to happen, 1/Y for B' when discussing numbers: To put a face to the odds. And even then, those numbers don't need to be here.
Look, I like calculating 'what's better: spending 3 Edge on forcing the enemy to reroll 3 hits or spending 4 Edge to reroll 8 of my failures'. I calculated the break-even point between Exploding and Rerolling with a simple math-formula. I created a spreadsheet to determine how much a Limit I needed at what dicepool counts when being risk-averse (<1/10 chance of losing hits). And the actual numbers are VERY useful when it comes to Drain-debates. But FastJack DOES have half a point: I can calculate all the stats, give exact odds as 100% legit facts, but even then those facts can merely support an opinion, they can't turn an opinion into a fact. In the end, the thing that matters is 'how much of a risk am I willing to accept/take'. The only thing the math is supposed to do, is help you base your opinion on the right numbers. But they don't define it.