Threshold explanation and examples request

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« Reply #15 on: <09-23-10/0403:28> »
I was bored at work one day and I wrote a little script to calculate these probability charts.  The X-axis is your dice pool and the Y-axis is the probability of succeeding at the test with the given threshold number.  So for example, to find the probability of succeeding in a test with a threshold of 4 and a dice-pool of 9 with no edge, you would look at the graph with the title "4 harder" and then see how high the black curve is on the Y-axis when you look above the X-axis value of 9.....and we see it's about 0.35 or 35%.  

This might be a good guide to understanding thresholds...just translate it to probability of success, that's what I do.  

 (Ignore the small-scale wiggles in the red curve, I used Monte Carlo method to calculate rule of six cuz it's faster..... just smooth it out mentally.  Also, the 2 dice you add to your dice-pool is already included in the red curve....i.e. If my original dice-pool is 8, I'd look at the value on the red curve for 8, not for 10...that would be the value with using 4 edge.)

« Last Edit: <09-23-10/0410:23> by inca1980 »


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« Reply #16 on: <09-23-10/1619:34> »

But why are you less likely to succeed if you reroll misses for a threshold of 1 vs. rolling it straight?  (As it appears to be the case in the graph.)
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« Reply #17 on: <09-27-10/1016:53> »
Hey those probability examples are great.  Granted that reasonably more dice = higher probability of success, this is not a guarantee.  Without proper alignment of planets, sufficient virgin sacrifices, and an orgy worshiping a giant octopus with wings, I've seen dice pools in the teens result in 1 success.
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« Reply #18 on: <10-05-10/0053:03> »

But why are you less likely to succeed if you reroll misses for a threshold of 1 vs. rolling it straight?  (As it appears to be the case in the graph.)

Because of I forgot to include a virgin sacrifice..... :-[

That....or one of my FOR loops for the green curve is getting nutty when the threshold is 1.  I'll check it out when I go to work tomorrow...thanks for pointing that should be working just find for higher thresholds though.....but i'll double check :)

But you can definitely believe the black and red curves for all of them....and it's the black curve you want to look at for deciding what threshold number you want to use.  It's mean to adjust the threshold for a players success test depending on the dicepool they got....but still, it helps for being able to get a feel for what success tests really mean in terms of chance of success.
« Last Edit: <10-05-10/0056:17> by inca1980 »


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« Reply #19 on: <10-05-10/0947:12> »
Easy is:
  • Shooting the broad side of a barn. (Pistols)
  • Finding the phone number of your local Stuffer Shack. (Data Search)
  • Convincing the waiter you need a new spoon because yours is dirty. (Con)
  • Dodging a water balloon - thrown underhand. (Dodge)
  • Taking two aspirin for a headache. (First Aid)
  • Noticing the Troll Bouncer looks mean. (Perception)

Average is:
  • Hitting a troll-sized target at 5m. (Pistols)
  • Finding the ShadowSEA. (Data Search)
  • Getting a free dessert because your potato was cold. (Con)
  • Dodging a water balloon - thrown overhand. (Dodge)
  • Treating a paper cut with Neosporin and a Band-aid. (First Aid)
  • Noticing the Troll Bouncer has obvious cybereyes. (Perception)

Hard is:
  • Shooting a man sized target at 20m. (Pistols)
  • Finding the corp wageslave at Renraku who has been reprimanded for 'abusing' his access rights. (Data Search)
  • Convincing the maitre'd to seat you at his best table. (Con)
  • Dodging a fastball. (Dodge)
  • Setting a broken bone. (First Aid)
  • Noticing the Troll Bouncer has synthetic cyberarms. (Perception)

Extreme is:
  • Shooting a bullseye at 40m. (Pistols)
  • Finding an access code to Jackpoint. (Data Search)
  • Convincing the restaurant that you're a food critic and getting the meal comped. (Con)
  • Dodging a bullet completely. (Dodge)
  • Stabilizing a person that has lost a limb from dying of shock. (First Aid)
  • Noticing the Troll Bouncer just activated his Wired Reflexes. (Perception)

These are very generic and may not hold true 100% of the time, but it should give you rough ideas on the difficulties of various tests.

Hey...I ve just succeded against extreme on Datasearch


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« Reply #20 on: <10-10-10/1906:48> »
The times I run across threshold in combat is when I'm doing silly stuff like levitating equipment and bikes to toss the corp sec forces around. Then it becomes a question of if I can beat the object resistance of the item. usually? Not alot of luck but sometimes...

If you were a corper and your gun flew out of your hands to point at your face, would /you/ want to keep fighting?