IMHO, first you need to ask where the majority of runners come from and who they are. Now, from what I have seen and heard of others, most would say Shadowrunners grew up on the streets, maybe came from a gang, got some cyberware, went on their first run and now try to stay on the cutting edge.
I couldn't disagree more. Most Shadowrunners, true Shadowrunners had to have training (ie magic) and/or cyberware. That means former Corps, former (or current) organized crime backing, or former military. I'd say that there are a lot of want-to-be runners out there, but everyone's forgetting one HUGE statistic...most Shadowrunners don't survive their first run.
You have to look at WHY people become Shadowrunners. They are SINless, and want to score big and live the good life by their rules. Let's face it, being in a gang doesn't pay well. The Gang Leader gets a little wealth, but he gives a precentage to whatever organized crime group runs the area. There are a FEW independant gangs (the Anicents, etc...), but they Still don't make the big bucks-if they did, they wouldn't be know as gangs they'd be known as an Organized Crime Group.
So, IMHO, while its most likely true that there are a large number (I'd say 1,000 to 1,200) of Shadowrunner-wanta-bes (300 to 400 BP range) the attrition rate amongest they is HIGH. Even more so for "average' shadowrunners (a couple hundred at 400 to 500 BP), and Prime runners (and a few dozen at 500 BP+). Very few runners get in the Biz to be Shadowrunners for life...there is no future in it. Eventually you die. Most go in with a set goal (make x amount of nuyen0 and are killed before they make it there.