Shadowrun
Shadowrun Play => Gamemasters' Lounge => GM's Toolbox => Topic started by: Darzil on <012415/1101:03>

Based on this (http://simantics.blogspot.co.uk/2011/04/shadowrun4theditionprobability.html) lovely Shadowrun 4th Edition probability table I whipped up some for Shadowrun 5th. Basic differences are glitch being more than half the dice being 1's, rather than half or more, and going up to 22 dice rather than 15. (though probably a lower number of simulations, as I used Excel, so only 65536 rolls of up to 22 dice.
Added columns for the limit needed to not waste hits 95% of the time, 75% of the time and 50% of the time. (As I play a decker, I can adjust the limits quite a bit during play, so this may prove handy)
Added a table for chance of success based on number of dice rolled by attacker and defender, where defender needs one net hit.
http://www.northshield.co.uk/Shadowrun/Shadowrun5ProbabilityTable.xls

Update  Can now specify a limit on the table that gives chance of success on attacker vs defender.
Edit  And now it actually works, too!
Edit 2  Added chance of 2 net hits and 3 net hits by attacker vs defender
Edit 3  Because it bugged me, now uses calculations, not simulation, doesn't change much.

I get a 404 error when following that link :( Any chance you can make it a google document?

Sorted the 404 error. Will see if I have a google account and if google docs can support all the functions. I like people to be able to see the calculations rather than just trust me!
Edit  I should get there, but ye gods it's slow !
Edit 2  Can anyone advise on how to protect a sheet in google docs? The sheet is far less useful if you can't select a limit, but when I protect all except that cell from editing if I share as editable to public I can still edit everything else when I am not logged in! Surely there is a half way between all editable and none?

Google Sheets supports Excel style functions and displays them

Google Sheets supports Excel style functions and displays them
Fortunately I built this without my Matrix spreadsheet's heavy reliance on VBA, so should work.
If I can just work out a way to allow people to see the code, but not edit anything other than the limit box. Not having any luck with public having edit access and the whole sheet being set to protected except the limit box. Me as anonymous can still edit everything.

it looks like your probabilites are off once you get to 3 dice being rolled on critical glitches and right away on successes. the equation should be (dice goal^number wanted)x(dice fails^(wantedtotal))x(total choose wanted).
for example the probability of getting 2 success on 3 dice would be ((2/6)^2)x((4/6)^1)x(3choose2)
this comes out to being 8.64%
you can run this in wolframalpha if you wish to check it.
((2/6)^x)*((4/6)^(yx))*(ychoosex)
you can replace x and y with what ever you want for successes and dice rolled. for critical glitch it would be 1/6 and 3/6 due to not wanting any 5s or 6s. a glitch would be 1/6 and 5/6