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State of 6e today

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markelphoenix

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« Reply #300 on: <08-22-20/1622:16> »
I find it a bit sick that in a time like this, where so many people and companies have gone through hardship, you still insist on comparing sale numbers. :-\

Don't see how it's sick. Accurate analysis can only be done through having solid data. Opinion is opinion. Accurate data can lead to understanding facts.

0B

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« Reply #301 on: <08-22-20/1652:04> »
Well, he's half right. You would have to look at how sales are in the industry as a whole during this time. I've got thick skin so a comment like that isn't going to bother me.

However, the fact that the campaign books are performing within expected ranges, but Firing Squad is not, shows that current circumstances may not be a strong factor.

My interpretation is that 1.) About the same amount of players are interested in the setting/plot as they were in the last edition, and 2.) Less players are interested in the rules as they were in the last edition.

My concern is this: If CGL's books are delayed and they are not making as many sales as they used to, what will this do to the future of SR? Plenty of armchair-businessmen on reddit seem to think that if CGL no longer made SR (Due to financial hardship, Topps selling the IP to someone else, etc), that "someone else" would make it. I don't think I'd count on that. I don't think it would be productive to go into detail on why CGL should or should not make SR, etc.

Reaver

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« Reply #302 on: <08-22-20/1937:56> »
That is a concern....
But CGL and Topps are in 2 unique positions.

Topps is itself owned by a different company (I forget which), which does nothing more then collect IPs. (And is owned by an EX-Disney CEO...).

Topps primary market is cards (baseball, basketball, etc), and sports items (which in turn, has been a shitshow for 3+ years of dropping viewers and interest). But doesn"t have the in house set up for creative works. Meaning they are not capable of making Battletech/SR products themselves.

CGL, OTOH has the infrastructure and expertise to make creative works, but lack the IP to capitalize...

And in a Global recession, brought on by a Global pandemic.... you have disruptions in logistics, materials, and markets.... Which means EVERYONE from business, resources, and consumers are hurting....

Does Topps sell off the IP to raise capital?
Could CGL buy said IP?
Could Topps raise the license fees, thus pricing out of CGL's reach?
If CGL abandon's the IP, who picks it up?

Those are the questions.... and for the most part we  don't know what will happen...

Last I heard (and this wad YEARS ago) CGL was the only bid on the Battletech and SR IPs. Take that for what's it worth :/
« Last Edit: <08-23-20/1144:18> by Reaver »
Where am I going? And why am I in a hand basket ???

Remember: You can't fix Stupid. But you can beat on it with a 2x4 until it smartens up! Or dies.

0B

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« Reply #303 on: <08-22-20/2047:48> »
It seems like CGL, at least, is taking an aggressive approach. IDK if you're on the mailing list or not, but a few weeks ago I did see this announcement:

Quote
Catalyst Game Labs—publisher of the seminal BattleTech and Shadowrun games—is excited to partner with bestselling author Kristine Kathryn Rusch to bring her fiction to life on gaming tables.

Rusch’s Diving Universe has been explored extensively in fiction, with 10 full novels and 15 novellas already published and more on the way. A far-future universe in which a quixotic salvage “diver” explores millennia’s worth of abandoned stations, lost ships, and the Boneyard—a dangerous area of space where hundreds of dangerous vessels are collected.

Diving Into The Wreck will be a cooperative push-your-luck Encounters game where you’ll dive into explorations as one of Rusch’s memorable characters. Players use a set of six dice to defeat a storyline of Challenge cards, hoping to discover deeper secrets as they go. Accrue and spend resources, watch each other’s back, and solve each phase in time to escape the final challenge.

“As a gamer myself, I’m thrilled to partner with Catalyst,” said Kristine Kathryn Rusch, author of the Diving series. “We’re doing our best to make sure the game reflects all the best elements of my Diving Universe.”

Early access to the Diving Into The Wreck game is available through the Kickstarter campaign Rusch is currently running for a new novel installment in the series, entitled The Return of Boss. The game is available as a stand-alone reward, an add-on, or added with fiction rewards. Included is access to the first Diving novella, for free! Catalyst will eventually host the Diving Universe novels and games on their web store.

“I’m very excited to work once again with Kristine Kathryn Rusch, a long-time friend and mentor, on what I hope will be the first of many game projects,” said Loren Coleman, Catalyst Game Labs’ owner. “Her worlds are always engaging, and her writing nothing short of amazing!”

I am unfamiliar with the Diving Universe, but it looks like the kickstarter for the novel (NOT the "Diving into the Wreck" game) was successful, and made nearly ten times its goal. The kickstarter gives a date for the game's early access release:

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DIVING INTO THE WRECK encounters game from Catalyst Game Labs plus early electronic copies of both the new Boss Diving novel THIEVES and the new Diving Universe novel SQUISHY'S TEAMS.

Both novels will get to you in October, far ahead of the normal publication date. The game will ship in November.

Shipping for the game is $2.00 and includes 55 cards, six dice, and a rules sheet inside a nifty box.

More of a board game than a TTRPG, but still interesting

penllawen

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« Reply #304 on: <08-23-20/1052:12> »
I'm not going to underestimate the power of the "long tail" when it comes to sales, especially with long-lived things like TTRPGs. But given the tiers for DTRPG, we can say that right now, 6e has about half the sales of Anarchy, and about a fifth of the sales for 5e CRB and 4e CRB (At most, it has 40% of the sales that 5e and 4e have- assuming that 6e is one sale away from the next tier, and 5e/4e are just barely making the cut for Adamantine)....
As far as I can tell, Firing Squad is performing significantly worse than any of the other core rulebooks. I think this is more telling about the state of 6e than the campaign books, since some people just get the campaign books to read them, not to use them with a certain edition. However, people will typically only go for these kinds of books if they intend to use the rules in them with a particular edition. Whereas the 6e campaign books are performing on par with the worst of the 5e campaign books, Firing Squad is performing a tier below the worst of the 5e rules books.
It's worth underscoring that RPGs themselves are hugely bigger in 2019/2020 than they were in 2013-2015. Endless D&D podcasts and slickly produced YouTube channels have put RPGs further into the mainstream than they have ever been. WOTC has been selling D&D stuff hand-over-fist, and I understand Paizo is also in rude financial health.

Against that backdrop, these numbers for 6e look like even more of a stark failure to either engage the existing SR audience or find new players.

And in a Global recession, brought on by a Global pandemic.... you have disruptions in logistics, materials, and markets.... Which means EVERYONE from business, resources, and comsuners are hurting....
Hmmm. I feel like, if anything, the TTRPG industry isn't in nearly as bad a place as many are. It's mostly comprised of freelancers who work from home. It can deliver all its output digitally, side-stepping logistics and manufacturing issues. People can play online (and indeed, if your country is in any sort of lockdown, it's never been easier to find timeslots that work for your whole group.) Unless you share my weakness for impulse purchases of every cool-looking thing on DTRPG, it's can be a pretty cheap hobby; $100 can get you years of enjoyment.

The obvious exceptions are physical books and FLGSs. And that's not nothing. But I wouldn't be surprised if RPG companies in general come through this in OK shape.

My concern is this: If CGL's books are delayed and they are not making as many sales as they used to, what will this do to the future of SR? Plenty of armchair-businessmen on reddit seem to think that if CGL no longer made SR (Due to financial hardship, Topps selling the IP to someone else, etc), that "someone else" would make it. I don't think I'd count on that. I don't think it would be productive to go into detail on why CGL should or should not make SR, etc.
I doubt CGL itself is in any sort of trouble, having raised $2.5m last year on a Battletech Kickstarter. The worst case scenario for Shadowrun is maybe that Topps continues to regard Battletech/SR as one licence, but CGL mothballs the SR line and just continues to sell Battletech.

But personally: as a strictly home-game-only person, my table has already decided that we're never going to play 6e, so nothing CGL does with SR for the next half-decade has any bearing on me. I can merrily continue to play forever with my shelf of 2e-5e. And my interest in / anticipation of a 7e from CGL is approximately zero, so I don't really care if that never happens either.

FastJack

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« Reply #305 on: <08-23-20/1124:37> »
I believe the only company that would be interested in the license if CGL was no longer working on it would be Pegasus Press in Germany, and I don't know if they would try printing English editions for the market here.

As for Reavers questions:

Topps is owned by two companies: Madison Dearborn Partners (a company specializing in leveraged buyouts of other companies) and The Tornante Company (itself a subsidiary of Disney). After being burned by WizKids' failure, they have zero interest in games and kept the IP because it's easy money. Catalyst was created from former WizKids employees and fans of the game that bought the IP to make sure the games didn't just disappear. I don't know how the licensing works, but I'm pretty sure CGL can't drop Shadowrun and keep BattleTech, or vice versa. As long as one is selling, the other game will be producing.

Topps could sell of the IP to make capital, but they don't need to. Although if you hear rumblings that Topps is declaring bankruptcy, expect them to sell fast. And cheap.

Since Topps, through the chain of subsidiaries, is part of Disney, I don't expect any offers (except ridiculous ones) to have a chance to purchase it. Again, it's free money for the company that is returned every year.

For the last two, Topps could raise the license's fees (and may have done so since CGL first got them), but they aren't going to do so in a bluff to try and get Catalyst to pay way more than they can. If CGL's sales suddenly quadruple, I'm sure there will be a renegotiation for the license in the next quarter. And, as I said before, I believe the license is for BattleTech AND Shadowrun, so CGL won't drop the license.

Of course, if sales really start tanking and people keep on complaining, CGL could maintain the license and just stop making Shadowrun books. To give you a clear idea, here's how it looks for ALL of CGL on DriveThruRPG:

BookI believe the only company that would be interested in the license if CGL was no longer working on it would be Pegasus Press in Germany, and I don't know if they would try printing English editions for the market here.

As for Reavers questions:

Topps is owned by two companies: Madison Dearborn Partners (a company specializing in leveraged buyouts of other companies) and The Tornante Company (itself a subsidiary of Disney). After being burned by WizKids' failure, they have zero interest in games and kept the IP because it's easy money. Catalyst was created from former WizKids employees and fans of the game that bought the IP to make sure the games didn't just disappear. I don't know how the licensing works, but I'm pretty sure CGL can't drop Shadowrun and keep BattleTech, or vice versa. As long as one is selling, the other game will be producing.

Topps could sell of the IP to make capital, but they don't need to. Although if you hear rumblings that Topps is declaring bankruptcy, expect them to sell fast. And cheap.

Since Topps, through the chain of subsidiaries, is part of Disney, I don't expect any offers (except ridiculous ones) to have a chance to purchase it. Again, it's free money for the company that is returned every year.

For the last two, Topps could raise the license's fees (and may have done so since CGL first got them), but they aren't going to do so in a bluff to try and get Catalyst to pay way more than they can. If CGL's sales suddenly quadruple, I'm sure there will be a renegotiation for the license in the next quarter. And, as I said before, I believe the license is for BattleTech AND Shadowrun, so CGL won't drop the license.

Of course, if sales really start tanking and people keep on complaining, CGL could maintain the license and just stop making Shadowrun books. To give you a clear idea, here's how it looks for ALL of CGL on DriveThruRPG:

BookGameReleasedDTRPG SalesRating  Out of
Neo-Anarchist StreetpediaShadowrun   June 2019Gold (500-1000)311
House AranoBattleTechJune 2019Platinum (1000-2000)   4.711
Chaos Campaign: Succession Wars   BattleTechJune 2019Silver (100-250)4.812
Sixth World Beginner BoxShadowrunJuly 2019Gold (500-1000)2.218
Alpha Strike: Commander's EditionBattleTechJuly 2019Gold (500-1000)52
Free SeattleShadowrunDecember 2019   Electrum (250-500)41
Sixth World Core RulebookShadowrunJanuary 2020Platinum (1000-2000)2.651
Cutting BlackShadowrunJanuary 2020Electrum (250-500)3.69
30 NightsShadowrunMarch 2020Electrum (250-500)3.33
TRO: Clan InvasionBattleTechMarch 2020Electrum (250-500)51
RS: Clan InvasionBattleTechMarch 2020Silver (100-250)00
TRO: JihadBattleTechMarch 2020Electrum (250-500)51
TS: Gulf BreezeBattleTechApril 2020Silver (100-250)51
TS: Rigil KentarusBattleTechMay 2020Silver (100-250)00
Tales from the UCAS: Age of RustShadowrunMay 2020Silver (100-250)31
The Crazy EightsBattleTechMay 2020Silver (100-250)51
Firing SquadShadowrunMay 2020Electrum (250-500)38
TS: JardineBattleTechMay 2020Silver (100-250)4.54
Tactical OperationsBattleTechJune 2020Silver (100-250)00
TS: TyrfingBattleTechJune 2020Silver (100-250)51
MechWarrior: DestinyBattleTechJune 2020Gold (500-1000)4.84
RG: ilClan Vol 1BattleTechJune 2020Electrum (250-500)52
RG: ilClan Vol 2BattleTechJuly 2020Electrum (250-500)52
Krime KatalogShadowrunJuly 2020Electrum (250-500)3.54
Ingentis AthletesShadowrunJuly 2020Silver (100-250)41
RG: ilClan Vol 3BattleTechJuly 2020Electrum (250-500)51
Thermo PoliceBattleTechJuly 2020Silver (100-250)51
TS: KaumbergBattleTechJuly 2020Silver (100-250)51
RG: ilClan Vol 4BattleTechJuly 2020Electrum (250-500)51
TRO: Golden CenturyBattleTechJuly 2020Gold (500-1000)51
Hanseatic CrusadeBattleTechAugust 2020Silver (100-250)52
RG: ilClan Vol 5BattleTechAugust 2020Electrum (250-500)00
TS: ValenciaBattleTechAugust 2020Copper (50-100)00
TS: BraunschweigBattleTechAugust 2020Copper (50-100)00

(I didn't pull Missions or Fiction in this list)

Reaver

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« Reply #306 on: <08-23-20/1141:57> »
Quote
Hmmm. I feel like, if anything, the TTRPG industry isn't in nearly as bad a place as many are. It's mostly comprised of freelancers who work from home. It can deliver all its output digitally, side-stepping logistics and manufacturing issues. People can play online (and indeed, if your country is in any sort of lockdown, it's never been easier to find timeslots that work for your whole group.) Unless you share my weakness for impulse purchases of every cool-looking thing on DTRPG, it's can be a pretty cheap hobby; $100 can get you years of enjoyment.

The obvious exceptions are physical books and FLGSs. And that's not nothing. But I wouldn't be surprised if RPG companies in general come through this in OK shape.

Well, there are issues here...

yea, CGL uses freelancers (and I am sure the other companies do as well), But... well.. Who is organizing those Freelancers right now? Who is checking their work? How are they getting paid? who is editing their work? Organizing the work in to book format?

There are a lot of steps in there, more then just asking "Mike" to write 5000 words for the Magic section...  And as we learned  earlier this year, its actually the printers that make the PDF to make sure the PDF lines up with the book releases...
So... Is the printer working from home?

we won't have a full accounting of the economic damage of the lockdowns and pandemic for a couple of years after it ends... (always takes a while for the chips to stop falling)
And some companies can't wait that long... Look at Warner and DC.... Warner is under the FTC gun to maintain a stock price (as mandated in their merger). But DC comics has not been profitable for years, and this month, they just axed 30% of their books, writers, and editors!

Disney is 38 BILLION in the hole for the year, with 11.5 BILLION in new loans from just 2020 (to keep them afloat when the parks closed "for a month" back in March). They have huge issues... Star Wars, Thanks to the cost of the movies, the theme park, the original purchase price has yet to recoup their capital. (some scary numbers out of Disney say only 3 movies actually made any money! With 2 movies costing more in production and advertisement the they actually grossed!) Toy sales are so bad, that Hasbro and 3 other toy makers WALKED AWAY from Star Wars toys....  Even in the high end collectible, Diamond Collectibles is NOT making any Disney Star Wars merchandise as there is zero demand. (but, would like a Luke, Han or Liea Bust? They are selling well. As is Boba Fett.)
So expect to see things change at Disney. Especially with Bean Counter Bob Cheapskate in Charge... Disney has a 75 BILLION dollar hole to climb out of..

Hasbro is hurting, according to my sources. No idea what that means or how badly.... I know Creative Workshop is really feeling it right now. But that is mostly due to a break down in product shipping and manufacturing (Models make a huge slice of their revenue, and that has been interrupted pretty badly).

Don't get me wrong I am hoping everyone comes through this little pandemic safe and sound and with Jobs waiting for them on the other end. But that is mostly wishful thinking, as I don't see this pandemic ending until a cure has been created and distributed in large enough amounts to provide herd immunity. 
Where am I going? And why am I in a hand basket ???

Remember: You can't fix Stupid. But you can beat on it with a 2x4 until it smartens up! Or dies.

Reaver

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« Reply #307 on: <08-23-20/1147:46> »
Quote
Topps is owned by two companies: Madison Dearborn Partners (a company specializing in leveraged buyouts of other companies) and The Tornante Company (itself a subsidiary of Disney).

I wasn't aware of Madison Dearborn. But Tornante is the company I was thinking of. Run by an ex-Disney CEO. (whose name escapes me ATM.,.. but we was just before Iger) 
Where am I going? And why am I in a hand basket ???

Remember: You can't fix Stupid. But you can beat on it with a 2x4 until it smartens up! Or dies.

0B

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« Reply #308 on: <08-23-20/1218:55> »
Topps could sell of the IP to make capital, but they don't need to. Although if you hear rumblings that Topps is declaring bankruptcy, expect them to sell fast. And cheap.

When you say "cheap," is that on the order of 20-50k? Or more on the order of 100-500k? Edit: Nevermind, cheap as in 30 million

I would learn german if pegasus took over, TBH. They don't seem like the type to get irritated by fan translations, and you can do it legally if you stick strictly to mechanics.
« Last Edit: <08-23-20/1222:42> by 0B »

penllawen

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« Reply #309 on: <08-23-20/1234:02> »
Of course, if sales really start tanking and people keep on complaining, CGL could maintain the license and just stop making Shadowrun books.
”Stop whining and resume buying the bad books, consumer, or there might not be any more bad books to buy!”

For avoidance of doubt, I use “bad” here both subjectively (“I don’t like 6e”) and objectively (“6e is sloppily edited and has numerous serious inconsistencies and mathematical incoherencies even after a full year of errata.”)

0B

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« Reply #310 on: <08-23-20/1325:59> »
Of course, if sales really start tanking and people keep on complaining, CGL could maintain the license and just stop making Shadowrun books.
”Stop whining and resume buying the bad books, consumer, or there might not be any more bad books to buy!”

For avoidance of doubt, I use “bad” here both subjectively (“I don’t like 6e”) and objectively (“6e is sloppily edited and has numerous serious inconsistencies and mathematical incoherencies even after a full year of errata.”)

Well, that's the other piece of it. I'm sure you know there's people who stopped buying new books after 3e and after 4eA. It appears like there's significantly less people buying books after 5e as well.

There's folks playing 1e, 2e, and 3e games without any worries about all of this, or without wanting any new books.

One thing to note for FastJack's point- getting 200 sales across 2 books will net you less profit than 200 sales across 1 book. Take TS: Valencia, for instance. It has a price of 2.99, so it's grossed between 149.50 and 299.00. After DTRPG's cut, that's about $105 - $210 dollars. To break even, they had to spend that amount or less on production. The cover alone is likely in the $50 range, assuming they did it cheap and didn't reuse old assets. I bought it For Science, and this is the breakdown on wordcount and art assets:
* 21 pages total
* Layout is likely reused from old work, but they still had to pay someone to put it together
* One writer, one editor, and three production staff credited
* Factchecking/playtesting are also credited, but they likely did it for free
* Ignoring the records sheets at the back, total comes out to about 7.5k words. Standard rate in the industry is 0.03 per word for writing, which comes out to $225. The bare minimum I've heard is 0.005 (half a cent) per word, so that would be $37.50.
* For art: 1 cover art, 1 half-page art (Reused later with a grid overlay), 3 quarter-page cartoony art, 2 quarter page grayscale art. My best guestimate is $50, $35, $10 x 3, and $15 x 2 for a total of $145.
* The 3 records sheets in the back were credited to two people

I don't have a good reference for what the editor would be paid (Likely half a cent per word? They might be salaried), or the layout artist. Either way, you're looking at a base cost of $182.50 - $370.00, plus whatever they paid the layout artist and editor. Less if they reused art or didn't pay the artists.

In any case, if the rest of the TS line has similar base costs, I'd characterize anything that's still at copper 6 months later as being lost profit. Silver is closer to breaking even, but that's still between $210 and $525, and might not have been worth the time put into it.

Battletech is certainly putting out more material, but I don't think it has the same ROI as its SR products, even the ones not selling as well.

Reaver

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« Reply #311 on: <08-23-20/1416:53> »
Of course, if sales really start tanking and people keep on complaining, CGL could maintain the license and just stop making Shadowrun books.
”Stop whining and resume buying the bad books, consumer, or there might not be any more bad books to buy!”

For avoidance of doubt, I use “bad” here both subjectively (“I don’t like 6e”) and objectively (“6e is sloppily edited and has numerous serious inconsistencies and mathematical incoherencies even after a full year of errata.”)

Well, that's the other piece of it. I'm sure you know there's people who stopped buying new books after 3e and after 4eA. It appears like there's significantly less people buying books after 5e as well.

There's folks playing 1e, 2e, and 3e games without any worries about all of this, or without wanting any new books.

One thing to note for FastJack's point- getting 200 sales across 2 books will net you less profit than 200 sales across 1 book. Take TS: Valencia, for instance. It has a price of 2.99, so it's grossed between 149.50 and 299.00. After DTRPG's cut, that's about $105 - $210 dollars. To break even, they had to spend that amount or less on production. The cover alone is likely in the $50 range, assuming they did it cheap and didn't reuse old assets. I bought it For Science, and this is the breakdown on wordcount and art assets:
* 21 pages total
* Layout is likely reused from old work, but they still had to pay someone to put it together
* One writer, one editor, and three production staff credited
* Factchecking/playtesting are also credited, but they likely did it for free
* Ignoring the records sheets at the back, total comes out to about 7.5k words. Standard rate in the industry is 0.03 per word for writing, which comes out to $225. The bare minimum I've heard is 0.005 (half a cent) per word, so that would be $37.50.
* For art: 1 cover art, 1 half-page art (Reused later with a grid overlay), 3 quarter-page cartoony art, 2 quarter page grayscale art. My best guestimate is $50, $35, $10 x 3, and $15 x 2 for a total of $145.
* The 3 records sheets in the back were credited to two people

I don't have a good reference for what the editor would be paid (Likely half a cent per word? They might be salaried), or the layout artist. Either way, you're looking at a base cost of $182.50 - $370.00, plus whatever they paid the layout artist and editor. Less if they reused art or didn't pay the artists.

In any case, if the rest of the TS line has similar base costs, I'd characterize anything that's still at copper 6 months later as being lost profit. Silver is closer to breaking even, but that's still between $210 and $525, and might not have been worth the time put into it.

Battletech is certainly putting out more material, but I don't think it has the same ROI as its SR products, even the ones not selling as well.


There is a lot more you are forgetting, and are making some wild assumptions.

The first one is the cost of Artwork.
The price you pay has a great deal to do with who did the work, what the art entails (detail, original format)....
To give give you an idea. Ethan Van Scriver is a well known artist. As such he was paid $20,000 for 13 live pen "sketches" used in Jordan Peterson's book "12 simple rules".
So, a little over $1500 per piece.

OTOH, several DC artists have let slip over the last little while that DC page rate was roughly $21 for each FULL page... (Again, dependent on the artist. If your name isn't Wade, Jimenez, or Reis, or on that tier, you are not making money).

The company have an Office? If so, how big? (for an Idea, Cdn Commerical rates are $33/sqFt). Warehouse space?
And then there is Utilities.. advertisement... Taxes..


And sadly, Battletech is the bread and butter for CGL... one just has to look out there in media.

Do 2 Youtube searches... Shadowrun. And Battletech. which one gives you more returns.
*Do the shadowrun one just for the fake TV and movie Ads! some of them are amazing!!!

Battletech has 7+ comper games associated to it, including one that was released i the last year, and an FTP online game that has thousands of active global players... (not HUGE, but not bad)
Shadowrun's has had... 5? 4?
Where am I going? And why am I in a hand basket ???

Remember: You can't fix Stupid. But you can beat on it with a 2x4 until it smartens up! Or dies.

0B

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« Reply #312 on: <08-23-20/1442:28> »
Of course, if sales really start tanking and people keep on complaining, CGL could maintain the license and just stop making Shadowrun books.
”Stop whining and resume buying the bad books, consumer, or there might not be any more bad books to buy!”

For avoidance of doubt, I use “bad” here both subjectively (“I don’t like 6e”) and objectively (“6e is sloppily edited and has numerous serious inconsistencies and mathematical incoherencies even after a full year of errata.”)

Well, that's the other piece of it. I'm sure you know there's people who stopped buying new books after 3e and after 4eA. It appears like there's significantly less people buying books after 5e as well.

There's folks playing 1e, 2e, and 3e games without any worries about all of this, or without wanting any new books.

One thing to note for FastJack's point- getting 200 sales across 2 books will net you less profit than 200 sales across 1 book. Take TS: Valencia, for instance. It has a price of 2.99, so it's grossed between 149.50 and 299.00. After DTRPG's cut, that's about $105 - $210 dollars. To break even, they had to spend that amount or less on production. The cover alone is likely in the $50 range, assuming they did it cheap and didn't reuse old assets. I bought it For Science, and this is the breakdown on wordcount and art assets:
* 21 pages total
* Layout is likely reused from old work, but they still had to pay someone to put it together
* One writer, one editor, and three production staff credited
* Factchecking/playtesting are also credited, but they likely did it for free
* Ignoring the records sheets at the back, total comes out to about 7.5k words. Standard rate in the industry is 0.03 per word for writing, which comes out to $225. The bare minimum I've heard is 0.005 (half a cent) per word, so that would be $37.50.
* For art: 1 cover art, 1 half-page art (Reused later with a grid overlay), 3 quarter-page cartoony art, 2 quarter page grayscale art. My best guestimate is $50, $35, $10 x 3, and $15 x 2 for a total of $145.
* The 3 records sheets in the back were credited to two people

I don't have a good reference for what the editor would be paid (Likely half a cent per word? They might be salaried), or the layout artist. Either way, you're looking at a base cost of $182.50 - $370.00, plus whatever they paid the layout artist and editor. Less if they reused art or didn't pay the artists.

In any case, if the rest of the TS line has similar base costs, I'd characterize anything that's still at copper 6 months later as being lost profit. Silver is closer to breaking even, but that's still between $210 and $525, and might not have been worth the time put into it.

Battletech is certainly putting out more material, but I don't think it has the same ROI as its SR products, even the ones not selling as well.


There is a lot more you are forgetting, and are making some wild assumptions.

The first one is the cost of Artwork.
The price you pay has a great deal to do with who did the work, what the art entails (detail, original format)....
To give give you an idea. Ethan Van Scriver is a well known artist. As such he was paid $20,000 for 13 live pen "sketches" used in Jordan Peterson's book "12 simple rules".
So, a little over $1500 per piece.

OTOH, several DC artists have let slip over the last little while that DC page rate was roughly $21 for each FULL page... (Again, dependent on the artist. If your name isn't Wade, Jimenez, or Reis, or on that tier, you are not making money).

The company have an Office? If so, how big? (for an Idea, Cdn Commerical rates are $33/sqFt). Warehouse space?
And then there is Utilities.. advertisement... Taxes..


And sadly, Battletech is the bread and butter for CGL... one just has to look out there in media.

Do 2 Youtube searches... Shadowrun. And Battletech. which one gives you more returns.
*Do the shadowrun one just for the fake TV and movie Ads! some of them are amazing!!!

Battletech has 7+ comper games associated to it, including one that was released i the last year, and an FTP online game that has thousands of active global players... (not HUGE, but not bad)
Shadowrun's has had... 5? 4?

Yeah, I'm guessing that I was overestimating the art. My numbers were based on what I've seen on fiverr from more "amateur" artists. The $21 rate is lower than what I expected for comics, but keep in mind that they have a different person do sketches, line art, and coloring. $20-30 for a full page sketch sounds about right for fiverr, too.

That's also why I differentiated between "cartoony" stuff and "grayscale," since the grayscale looked higher quality.

It's also possible that they're stiffing artists, too.

I'm not speaking so much to royalties from games, etc, just the profit that they're making from what CGL publishes. It would be irresponsible to speculate on royalties, since the rates are going to vary a lot, as will the profits per game.

I also don't want to talk about upkeep costs: it's true that CGL needs to make a certain amount total per month or per year for salaries and office upkeep. However, this isn't tied to the success of any individual book, it's tied to the overall profits of all books.

Let's say they stiffed the artists, and that they paid the writer the bare minimum. Let's call it $100 total cost, including editing and layout. This is a very low estimate, to be honest, I don't even think it's realistic that they're paying 0.005 cents per word.

They've published 7 TS books, let's say it's $700 total cost, assuming that each one of those books is comparable in size. 5 are silver, and the 2 newest ones are copper. We know from the calculations of SR books that these books will go up a tier or two after their release, so let's just say that at the end of the fiscal year, all 7 will be silver, with 100 - 250 sales each, or 700 - 1750 sales total. After accounting for dtrpg's take, that's between $765 and $2960 net profit.

Is that enough ROI for 7 20-page books? Who knows!

Compare this to krime katalog: At electrum, that's between 250 - 500 sales- you might anticipate it going up a tier, but I'm not sure if that'll happen before the fiscal year is over. Similar to the TS books, it's digital only, so we're only missing sales on CGL's site. Krime Katalog has a 9.99 price point, so that's between $2,500 and $5,000 gross profit.

Krime Katalog is about 15k words, and 13 half-pages of art. If we go with .03 cents per word, the writing cost $450. If we say it was .005 cents per word, then the writing cost $75 (If that's the case, holy shit, since that writing was worth a lot more than that). The cover was reused from the half-pages, and the art all looks to be decent quality. My best guess is somewhere in the $20-40 range, but if Reaver's right it could be closer to $10-20. The "high estimate" of cost would be $520, and the "low estimate" is $130. So the cost of the book is between $205 and $970, with maybe another $50-100 for layout and editing.

After DTRPG's take, the net profit is $1545 to $3295 with the low-cost estimate, and $780 to $2530 with the high-cost estimate.

Is that enough ROI for 1 40-page book? Again, who knows! But I do know that my high-cost estimate for this book is about the same range as the low-cost estimate for all 7 of the TS books.
« Last Edit: <08-23-20/1445:10> by 0B »

adzling

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« Reply #313 on: <08-24-20/1747:56> »
Our table will never move to 6e or purchase another product published by Catalyst.

They are dead to us.

When/ if someone else picks up the Srun license from Topps I'd look at buying srun stuff again.

As it stands Catalyst poisoned the well and we're not going to prop them up anymore.

jim1701

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« Reply #314 on: <08-26-20/1946:28> »
I'll give Shadowrun another chance once they move on to a new line dev.  I have no faith that Hardy is going to right this ship.  As much as I like the setting the quality of work in 5e was just bad.  There was nothing wrong with the writing, the fiction was actually quite good but the design and particularly the editing was atrocious IMO.  For me it's really that simple.