All sorts of lovely things.
+1.....10000000
You can and 1000% should apply statistical models to game systems. To not do so is actively asinine, and any remotely compitent game designer is going to do so while developing their game to some extent or another. To do otherwise would make you a truly terrible designer.
I say this not to imply CGL designers don't do this and thus are bad designers. I am saying that I can say with 100% certainty they are evaluating the numbers at least to some extent, applying statistical models while they design the game, because the game functions. Not applying statistical models to an RPG while designing it or evaluating it is like throwing car parts together and hoping you made an engine. The fact you are thinking about systems at all means you are using system design, and thus are doing some level of statistical evaluation as an inevitable part of the process.
You don't randomly guess, you compare different combination of scenarios based on different expected paramiters and tweak things to make sense. The fact that the DV code for guns isn't 9000 vs an average soak roll of 3 is an example of this: A very simple statistical model shows this is a ridiculous design that leads to bad outcomes. It takes a lot less sophisticated a model to account for this than say... figuring out the optimal break points for samurai soak vs expected DV based on certain enemies while accounting for the fact that you are assuming the PC is spending for one sub-role like off-face or off-decker, but you are still applying some math. SR's designers probably did way more than this (For example, small grade weapons vs the average human do around 2-4 DV before net hits, meaning that corpsec firing at you gives you a nice cushon of shots taken before your taken out, while anything other than a min-maxed soak tank will take less but still generally take 1 DV at least from any attack that lands, which seems rather deliberate because making soak tanks take incidental damage more often was a pretty obvious goal) but the point remains that unless your throwing darts at a board to get your numbers you are planning around expected results in your system.
There is such a thing as 'white rooming' where your models fall apart due to failing to account for how the actual game is played (ex: a fight where everyone is in a featureless white room just mindlessly attacking each other standing still), and there is sometimes an assumption all models are 'white room' math, but this generally isn't the case as players are very good at evaluating their general assumed scenarios (Ex: A lot of charop in SR5 will assume 9 attack dice from the enemy and the enemy to be in cover when trying to made a 'mid tier' combatant and then also evaluate vs HTR because those are the two most common types of enemies, and if you are not a samurai you are not expected to go above and beyond that so outliers like physad LTs or Prime Runner rival samurai can be accounted for but not prioritized) and avoiding white room math. And, on top of that, white room math is an important step because it lets you evaluate the benefit of situational effects that might come about in a non-white room scenario both as a player (ex: "I know in a white room scenario I will hit and down this guy only 35% of the time before he pegs me and I am in trouble. I now can evaluate how much effort I need to make to even the odds with smoke, cover, positioning, and aid effects from my team") and as a designer trying to figure out the nominal advantage that non-white room elements need to reward a 'tricky' character over a straightforward one.
Does this mean that if something is statistically uneven or suboptimal it is garbage? Heck no! A good example is using 'pre-edge' in SR5 to make dice explode when you already roll a big pool and limit isn't relevant. In general this is a bad idea but it is thrilling and leads to exciting outcomes, so players do it, and it turns out fun because even though it doesn't actually benefit you as much as re-rolling failures, the outcomes it creates are still enjoyable and useful for the player. But even in those cases you need to care about models. Being sub-optimal is fine, but being so sub-optimal that the 'promise' the mechanic makes (Ex: "Pre-edging may make you roll like 20 successes, dooo iiiiit") is a lie, then you have a huge problem because the hypothetical person designing that system, rather than actually making things fun, pretended they were fun and tricked someone into not having fun! And if you are designing games that is pretty much the worst thing you can do! You just Truenamered them! You SR5 laser'd them! SR4 longarms'd someone! The worst thing that can happen in a game is a designer promises something will be fun via making the game whisper 'It will be great, trust me' and it turns out all that effort and anticipation is the equivalent of an advertisement to buy more chocolate powdered drink product, and that their awesome laser ranger can't actually damage devil rats with their gun, let alone bug spirits. If you pump that laser into a damage calculator (which statistically models your expected results and the range of results you can get) you will instantly see why it has no chance of doing any of the things it promises and that it only can get situationally worse, not better, and it is one of those imbalanced things that does no good to the game and because its lying about what it can do and you can very clearly see it can't do it, as a player you now know a designer messed up and as a designer you would know to seriously buff a laser's base DV to avoid that scenario.
It just is important to understand the raw statistics of your game because pretending they don't exist and saying 'lets see how it actually plays' is sorta like, again, building a car and saying 'lets not calculate how well it drives at all, lets put it together and set up the expensive assembly lines and send it to market and just give it a whirl."
Which leads to the "thunderbird" problem Hobbes mentioned. That car you just throw together might work fine but putter along... or may crash and explode! Power discrepancies between roles do not matter nearly as much as people imply they do when comparing them, play is resilient to that sorta thing... but it is brittle, all or nothing. Things are fine even if there are power imbalances until it is clear someone at the table isn't able to contribute because they are so ineffective their scenes 'have' to be stolen because them trying to have scenes ruins things for other people, or someone naturally can solve so many problems it just becomes about them, or when someone is set up to have a cool moment but... oops... they were a soak focused Adept in 5e who used unarmed as advertised in core and oh no they just constantly get knocked out in combat and never hurt anyone while the face is able to stay up and outfight them to save them (Real example from the first 5e game I ever ran! Sorry Knightmare! And sorry DeathSentence, who was the 'OP' one who got so uncomfortable with the power imbalance they quit shadowrun despite being the Op character!).
You could argue the models are missing something, or are incomplete, or incorrectly applied, but saying that models ALWAYS are incomplete and shouldn't be trusted because you can make them misleading is very silly because it sorta is an argument that a very major concept in game design... doesn't... exist? A common mistake is to mistake a logical process (Statistical modeling, min-maxing) with your end goal, on both sides. But in reality, a model is just a tool to think about something and evaluate outcomes, not some end goal, and models don't lie, they just tell the super exact truth, much like statistics, in that a model only can be 'misleading' when there is some assumption in the model that will not actually be true most of the time. When If you think a model is flawed in its assumptions, point out the specific error in the assumptions, rather than arguing against systems design is a flawed practice when it has been used on some level or another to make literally every game you like, because models are a super necessary logical tool that cannot be avoided.
Have you considered that maybe between 5e and 6e, pixies all got together and decided to get swole?
This is probably the best thing ever written and is proof the internet was a good idea, warts and all.
pixie n. (vulgar) An elf. An elf poser.
I need to remind everyone that vulgar language is not allowed on the forum.
I spoke too soon...
It is 3 AM I can't be waking my neighbors screaming with laughter yall, cut it out!