[Crimsondude]

*pssst* Are you thinking the Enemy found a way to reach across the metaverse into the minds of your fellow freelancers and uses them to write itself back into the setting?

They never left, but I can't say more.

[Dwagonzhan]

Not a faster cycle rather the sentient population is radiating a "juicier signal" out to the metaplanes. Might be their numbers, might be what they do or even think.

If it's the numbers, then it will be accelerating greatly no matter what.
Population growth in Shadowrun's world (vs ours) was only temporarily curtailed by the presence of VITAS. Once that disease was checked however, population growth has been steadily increasing.

http://shadowrun.wikia.com/wiki/File:ChartWorldPop2.gif

~6 billion by 2055
~7 billion by 2071
Approaching 7.5 billion by 2080 (I'm truncating the projected timeline due to it being, well, the future)

Unless the Fourth World had populations like that (extremely unlikely, but I'm not well versed enough in Earthdawn to definitively say), and assuming this hypothesis is correct, then the gap is likely a lot smaller now than it ought to be in Fourth World analog.

[lokii]

I would say it's more in the range of ten to a hundred million.

Again what I meant by "numbers" is not that the cycle is accelerated, but that the sheer presence of so many minds (their signal) makes it somehow easier for entities from the deep metaplanes to traverse the distance between the worlds or find weak spots in the barrier between them, depending on the metaphor you prefer, even given a natural cycle. This goes back to the description of the Ghost Dance mana spike as a "locator" for the horror bridge in Worlds without End. Whether an increasing sentient population also increases the probability could go both ways: The enities still need to overcome what separates the worlds, a better "visibility" of our plane of existence might only get you so far.

Also the numbers made a difference regardless of the cycle. The Ghost Dance mana spike wouldn't have existed without the ghost dancers sacrificing their life. And once the powers that be put up a defence via Harlequin overcoming it was only possible by using various assets among them the Blood Mage Gestalt, which not only needs the cooperation of blood mages but also uses their life up. A stone age-sized population entering the magical era would have far fewer magicians available to sacrifice to such endeavours, they would also be more spread out.

Let me put it this way, the portrayal of the threat in Harlequin's Back and the Dragon Heart trilogy is explicit in that the problem is not the cycle but singular disturbances of the manasphere. All I have read since does not contradict that. I agree that this conversation in Shadowrun Returns could be interpreted in such a way but it is ambiguous. In addition as a game SRR is a peripheral source and even within the context of the game these are speculative statements.

So I don't know whether anything about the cycle has changed but Crater Lake could well be another "singular disturbance" with the one person connected to it conveniently removed from the scene. I have to admit it's a neat little loose end to pick up.

[Nath]

Again what I meant by "numbers" is not that the cycle is accelerated, but that the sheer presence of so many minds (their signal) makes it somehow easier for entities from the deep metaplanes to traverse the distance between the worlds or find weak spots in the barrier between them, depending on the metaphor you prefer, even given a natural cycle. This goes back to the description of the Ghost Dance mana spike as a "locator" for the horror bridge in Worlds without End. Whether an increasing sentient population also increases the probability could go both ways: The enities still need to overcome what separates the worlds, a better "visibility" of our plane of existence might only get you so far.

In that regard, the Great Ghost Dance can be looked at under two different perspectives. It was a massive act of sacrifice magic, that put the Scourge closer. But its goal was also to trigger multiple volcano eruptions (possibly including, though the original SR writers had no way to know at the time, the Yellowstone supervolcano). Had the Great Ghost Dance went ahead, a volcanic winter could have drastically reduced global population.

So the Great Ghost Dance could be considered as purposefully designed to either fasten up or slow down the coming of Horrors. One might even wonder if firing the Lone Eagle ICBM at Russia wasn't an early attempt at lowering Earth population by some millions.

[Wakshaani]

Yeah, population volume is very much a thing in terms of mana creation and astral energy as well as research into scientific areas of magic. The natural manasphere may only be at point X in the usual curve, but there's so many more *people* that weird things are happening.

"Keep the Earth's population under 500 million" indeed.

[Rosa]

Ehran described the cycle of magic as a semi-regular wave and in forbidden arcana there's some talk about a certain alignment between the astral and the physical being necessary for mana to flow between the two.

If we take the two points together it's likely that the parts of the wave that represents the times of magic also represents a close alignment of the astral and the physical, with the height of the mana cycle being when the two are in perfect alignment. That's when the horrors come through. The chasm in the metaplanes is actually a perfect metaphor for this.

There's no indication that the amount of population has anything at all to do with the speed with which the two spheres move towards perfect alignment, just as the amount of people on Earth doesn't affect its rotational speed either.

As has been mentioned earlier in this thread we do know though that singular events can create spikes that can be used to bridge the gap between the planes ahead of time. In that case then yes a higher population will mean greater chances of such singular events taking place,  but that's about the only effect a higher population will have on the speed of the cycle as I see it.

We should remember though that a population increase isn't unique to the 6th world,  the 4th and the 2nd would have had significant population increases as well  due to magic suddenly making life and healing that much easier, whereas the 3rd and 5th world would have begun with dramatic population decreases for the opposite reasons. Of course the population of the 6th world is much higher still,  but as I said that does not really matter except for a higher chance of those singular events taking place.

[psycho835]

Again what I meant by "numbers" is not that the cycle is accelerated, but that the sheer presence of so many minds (their signal) makes it somehow easier for entities from the deep metaplanes to traverse the distance between the worlds or find weak spots in the barrier between them, depending on the metaphor you prefer, even given a natural cycle. This goes back to the description of the Ghost Dance mana spike as a "locator" for the horror bridge in Worlds without End. Whether an increasing sentient population also increases the probability could go both ways: The enities still need to overcome what separates the worlds, a better "visibility" of our plane of existence might only get you so far.

In that regard, the Great Ghost Dance can be looked at under two different perspectives. It was a massive act of sacrifice magic, that put the Scourge closer. But its goal was also to trigger multiple volcano eruptions (possibly including, though the original SR writers had no way to know at the time, the Yellowstone supervolcano). Had the Great Ghost Dance went ahead, a volcanic winter could have drastically reduced global population.

So the Great Ghost Dance could be considered as purposefully designed to either fasten up or slow down the coming of Horrors. One might even wonder if firing the Lone Eagle ICBM at Russia wasn't an early attempt at lowering Earth population by some millions.

Sooo... Lowering population. VITAS. Think that was on purpose?
Also, how did Howling Coyote get the know-how to enact the GGD? Wasn't it implied that he had some... help?

[Marzhin]

Also, how did Howling Coyote get the know-how to enact the GGD? Wasn't it implied that he had some... help?

It's hinted that Thais had something to do with that.

[lokii]

As has been mentioned earlier in this thread we do know though that singular events can create spikes that can be used to bridge the gap between the planes ahead of time.

I would only add that the "singular event" doesn't necessarily have to be a mana spike (because .. well, magic ). And at least in theory Lethout should be all over those spikes... For example there have been hints of migratory movements across the metaplanes. I always wondered whether our realm could not be reached via "stepping stones". Though there is also the idea that the horrors have to maintain a connection to their home plane, once this connection is disrupted they are drawn back. Maybe that makes an indirect route difficult to use.

Also, how did Howling Coyote get the know-how to enact the GGD? Wasn't it implied that he had some... help?

It's hinted that Thais had something to do with that.

The old Grimoire had a biography of Daniel Howling Coyote. By his own claim the Ghost Dance rituals were revealed to him in a vision by a Great Spirit. It so happens that the historical Ghost Dance movement of the late 19th century was inspired by Thais to attempt a Ghost Dance, failing because of the low mana level, according to Worlds without End.

In that regard, the Great Ghost Dance can be looked at under two different perspectives. It was a massive act of sacrifice magic, that put the Scourge closer. But its goal was also to trigger multiple volcano eruptions (possibly including, though the original SR writers had no way to know at the time, the Yellowstone supervolcano). Had the Great Ghost Dance went ahead, a volcanic winter could have drastically reduced global population.

So the Great Ghost Dance could be considered as purposefully designed to either fasten up or slow down the coming of Horrors. One might even wonder if firing the Lone Eagle ICBM at Russia wasn't an early attempt at lowering Earth population by some millions.

So the Native Americans were the ones planning mass murder? That has to be a popular conspiracy theory. :|

[Nath]

In that regard, the Great Ghost Dance can be looked at under two different perspectives. It was a massive act of sacrifice magic, that put the Scourge closer. But its goal was also to trigger multiple volcano eruptions (possibly including, though the original SR writers had no way to know at the time, the Yellowstone supervolcano). Had the Great Ghost Dance went ahead, a volcanic winter could have drastically reduced global population.

So the Great Ghost Dance could be considered as purposefully designed to either fasten up or slow down the coming of Horrors. One might even wonder if firing the Lone Eagle ICBM at Russia wasn't an early attempt at lowering Earth population by some millions.

So the Native Americans were the ones planning mass murder? That has to be a popular conspiracy theory. :|

The Native Americans performed the Great Ghost Dance, but I never said they were the ones who designed it. Spirits, half-horrors, dragons or whatever taught the shamans the dance may have had very different goals indeed.

But even if they weren't planning to kill hundreds of millions of people, the SAIM was at war and certainly was not playing nice. Triggering the eruption of Mount Hood, Mount Rainier, Mount St. Helens and Mount Adams was their last warning shot. Let's just remind that Mount Rainier is about twice as big at Saint Helens and in direct proximity to Tacoma. There were none of the usual, sismological warnings. It was also said Chief Thunder Tyee ordered his units to help evacuate some area near Mount Rainier (after the eruption), which suggest the state and Federal agencies were not capable to do it. Several hundreds of people killed may be a conservative estimate. That may not be a lot with regard the global deathtoll on both sides between 2009 to 2018, and it was only a fraction of the number who would have been killed if the US government carried out its extermination campaign. So I think it depends if you consider "mass murder" only as a synonym for systemic genocide or if you consider that isolated acts of wiping out entire villages qualify.

There would be an interesting moral debate considering whether the Ghost Dance shamans had fine control or not over which volcano would erupt, and then if the eruption of Mount Rainier (likely to be the most deadly) was necessary to display the power of the Ghost Dance.

Besides, the eruptions were only supposed to a warning shot. So the plan had to have a next phase. If you consider that volcanoes cannot erupt twice, there weren't so many options available to raise the bar. The eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano would jump directly to the hundreds of millions killed (albeit indirectly over several years). Earthquakes in New York City (again), San Francisco, Los Angeles and Seattle may kill "only" a few thousands of people, while causing disproportionate economic damages. Massive floods along the Mississsipi, Colorado and Los Angeles rivers may leave more time for evacuation, while still causing massive economic damagas (and, interestingly enough, devastate the areas that would delimitate the NAN, possibly allowing the SAIM to expand its control zones).

Of course, that would assume the casualties among the Ghost Dance shamans did not prevent a second strike. What the Great Ghost Dance was capable of after the eruptions would indeed be one of the best-kept secret of the NAN even several decades after, for strategic reasons.

Back in 2009, taking over a military base and launching a nuclear missile at a random target, on the other hand, certainly qualify a "planning mass murder". But as far as conspiracy theories go, I still wonder what  the Shadowrun authors original idea was. We all take that event for granted because we read about it in various sourcebooks set forty years later. If former members of the armed forces were to take over a military compound in the most remote part of Montana for ten days, before the Delta Force kills them all, what independent sources of information would you actually have ? Sure, the media would rush to whatever is the closest Montana town, but I doubt they would be allowed to settle anywhere near the base. So the best independant evidence you would have would actually be some shooting of a missile fired up in the sky. The book specifically stated no explanation was ever given on how the terrorists entered the base, and doesn't given one regarding how they bypassed the missile launching protocols

Actually, there is no military facility anywhere near Shiloh Valley in Montana... (though I guess it may a fictious place modelled after Malmstrom Air Force Base, near Great Falls)..

[lokii]

I wanted to write genocide, but since this would have targeted all of humanity rather than specific groups I used mass murder instead. Which admittedly applies to a smaller scale of killing too, but I was thinking of dimensions associated with genocide. And I suspected that you did not necessarily mean it was the goal of ghost dance shamans--we just talked about the Thais connection--but it could easily be understood that way, which I wanted to point out. Also "I was just following spiritual orders" might not go over well in your war crime tribunal.

There would be an interesting moral debate considering whether the Ghost Dance shamans had fine control or not over which volcano would erupt, and then if the eruption of Mount Rainier (likely to be the most deadly) was necessary to display the power of the Ghost Dance.

[...]

Of course, that would assume the casualties among the Ghost Dance shamans did not prevent a second strike. What the Great Ghost Dance was capable of after the eruptions would indeed be one of the best-kept secret of the NAN even several decades after, for strategic reasons.

I wonder is this a purposeful allusion to the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs? Or is similarity superficial really only that it was also a demonstration of a weapon of mass destruction? Because the US would have been able to continue the bombing campaign after Nagasaki.

The book specifically stated no explanation was ever given on how the terrorists entered the base, and doesn't given one regarding how they bypassed the missile launching protocols

Well, they had the help of an insider: Major John Redbourne. He disabled the fail-safes and presumingly could have launched the Lone Eagle. Though I think most of the accounts do not actually put the blame for the launch on SAIM but leave the question of responsibility open.

[Nath]

There would be an interesting moral debate considering whether the Ghost Dance shamans had fine control or not over which volcano would erupt, and then if the eruption of Mount Rainier (likely to be the most deadly) was necessary to display the power of the Ghost Dance.

[...]

Of course, that would assume the casualties among the Ghost Dance shamans did not prevent a second strike. What the Great Ghost Dance was capable of after the eruptions would indeed be one of the best-kept secret of the NAN even several decades after, for strategic reasons.

I wonder is this a purposeful allusion to the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs? Or is similarity superficial really only that it was also a demonstration of a weapon of mass destruction? Because the US would have been able to continue the bombing campaign after Nagasaki.

Two different topics here.

About the moral debate in the demonstrative use of a weapon that will primarily hit civilian population, the parallel is inescapable. However, the number of deaths caused by Ghost Dance eruptions is likely nowhere near those of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings (or Tokyo or Dresden bombings for that matter). Still, it's important to note that there is little to no reference to any other attack by SAIM against civilian population (actually, I don't remember any, save for the Lone Eagle launch, but I cannot assert there is none at all). So the eruptions may have been their first attack targeted at civilian. Had it failed to hold the US offensive back, it would have been considered as a turning point in the SAIM strategy.

About the SAIM capability to perform a second strike, that's one big difference. In 1945, the US appears to have the capability to drop seven atomic bombs over the three following months (after that, it's less clear), each about as powerful as the previous ones. It was just a matter of raw materials and production. Performing the Great Ghost Dance, on the other hand, killed a significant number of shamans. Since shamans are a scarce resources, not easily replaced, the Ghost Dance may actually have become gradually weaker and weaker each time it would have been used.

Moreover, making a volcano erupting twice is pointless - pressure, dome and ice cap (and surrounding population!) being gone. Mount Rainer size and proximity to urban areas made it sort of a best pick. Once that option has been used, you either target Hawaii as another warning shot, trigger earthquakes in some major city, or go in full mutual destruction mode with Yellowstone. So not only the number of shots is limited, but it's not even sure there would be enough shamans alive to fire the next one.

From a strategic point of view, making Mount Rainier explode may seem like a mistake. The SAIM has already shown it could cause an eruption in Los Alamos. As a show of force, there's little difference between the ability to make four or three volcanoes erupt at once at will. Mount Rainier is the most threatening volcano in the US, and causing an uncontrolled evacuation of Seattle area may be way more potent, while avoiding the blame of undiscriminating civilian casualties.

Considering the US lack of magical knowledge at the time, I would actually have expected the SAIM to send the US government specific warnings of what they could do next, earthquakes, flood, or a supervolcano eruption. Which would make even more critical to hide Ghost Dancers casualties and their actual capability (assuming the SAIM itself knew what they were capable of).

On the other hand, the eruption were followed by attack on a number of military facilities throughout North America, so maybe Mount Rainier was specifically chosen so as to allow SAIM forces to seize Seattle as its first major metropolitan area (which Chief Thunder Tyee did not do, instead focusing on evacuating the population).

[Nath]

The book specifically stated no explanation was ever given on how the terrorists entered the base, and doesn't given one regarding how they bypassed the missile launching protocols

Well, they had the help of an insider: Major John Redbourne. He disabled the fail-safes and presumingly could have launched the Lone Eagle. Though I think most of the accounts do not actually put the blame for the launch on SAIM but leave the question of responsibility open.

Yes. To be more clear here, the history chapter in Shadowrun first edition pointed to the lack of explanation on how they broke in and the presence of Redbourne in the same sentence. I'm not sure if that's supposed to explain Redbourne could not provide the needed help to break into the perimeter or it's meraly bad writing.

Shadowrun 1st edition, page 13
A small band entered the Shiloh Launch Facility in northwest Montana, capturing a missile silo. To this day, no one knows how the raiders managed to bypass the security patrols, but once inside the missile, they met up with John Redbourne, a USAF major and a full-blood Dakota Sioux. After knocking his partner unconscious, Redbourne took the man's keys and codes to unlock the launch failsafes.

Regarding the launching of the missile itself, I often forgot Shadowrun ought to be closer to Hollywood than to real life and that I shouldn't bother about how actual nuclear arsenal procedures are implemented (in that case the fact that launching must be performed from two separate control rooms, thus requiring punching at least three colleagues).

[lokii]

From a strategic point of view, making Mount Rainier explode may seem like a mistake. The SAIM has already shown it could cause an eruption in Los Alamos. As a show of force, there's little difference between the ability to make four or three volcanoes erupt at once at will. Mount Rainier is the most threatening volcano in the US, and causing an uncontrolled evacuation of Seattle area may be way more potent, while avoiding the blame of undiscriminating civilian casualties.

Considering the US lack of magical knowledge at the time, I would actually have expected the SAIM to send the US government specific warnings of what they could do next, earthquakes, flood, or a supervolcano eruption. Which would make even more critical to hide Ghost Dancers casualties and their actual capability (assuming the SAIM itself knew what they were capable of).

Right, Los Alamos, so basically their Trinity. I think no one believed the claims about Redondo Peak. And there might not have been a warning because it was a test and the ghost dancers didn't know whether their magic would work. But I'm not sure that such warnings would have convinced the US and Canadian governments. Psionics was a popular explanation for magical phenomena at the time, they could have chosen to attribute such warnings to precognitive abilities rather than believe their opponents had power over nature. The simultaneous eruption of four volcanoes sent a clear signal that this power was real.

Yes. To be more clear here, the history chapter in Shadowrun first edition pointed to the lack of explanation on how they broke in and the presence of Redbourne in the same sentence. I'm not sure if that's supposed to explain Redbourne could not provide the needed help to break into the perimeter or it's meraly bad writing.

Almost sounds like they used magic, but this was before 2011...

Regarding the launching of the missile itself, I often forgot Shadowrun ought to be closer to Hollywood than to real life and that I shouldn't bother about how actual nuclear arsenal procedures are implemented (in that case the fact that launching must be performed from two separate control rooms, thus requiring punching at least three colleagues).

In reality security at nuclear facilities is almost always worse than what you would expect it to be, even if you have low expectations.

[lokii]

On the main topic: I read an older discussion which reminded me that the dragon heart would have gone to Thayla according to Dunkelzahn's original plan. With her gone the protection might be incomplete or the heart's own security impaired. Something to keep in mind.

But since Wakshaani pointed to Crate Lake, a mana ebb, maybe the problem is something that cannot be remedied with the dragon heart anyway.