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interpretation of estimated SINless

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lokii

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« on: <10-24-16/1600:12> »
(This could be a classic.)

How should the value for "Estimated SINless" in a "Facts at a Glance" infobox be interpreted?

Given population number x and estimated SINless y%:

Is y% the fraction of SINless in x? (x is SINners + SINless)

or

Is y% of x the number of SINless added to x? (x is just SINers; the true population size is x + x * (y / 100))

Medicineman

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« Reply #1 on: <10-25-16/0504:06> »
I always consider the official Numbers as the SINners and to this you add the SINless (because they ....fall under the Grid)

Metrôpole as Example (simplified):  it says 190 Mio and 10 % SINless
so total Population is 190 + 19 = 209 Mio Souls

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« Last Edit: <10-25-16/0507:35> by Medicineman »
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Mirikon

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« Reply #2 on: <10-25-16/1809:53> »
For those wondering how they get the 'estimated' sinner population, there are more metrics for determining population than just a census, tax rolls, and so on. Just because they're SINless doesn't mean they don't have an impact on other things, especially when you start talking power, water, food, garbage, and so on. You can make some estimates on population density based on how things like that, and I'm sure the megas have a department assigned to refining those algorithms. Not for any altruistic reasons, natch, more like finding how many people they can sell to, and finding useful groups that no one will miss if they die in product testing. However, the numbers would be estimates, not exacts.

In the Facts at a Glance box in the new Metropole book, it lists the population as 188,736,519. That's a very exact number, so I'm inclined to agree with MM that this is the 'official' number, drawn from SIN records and other such things. The estimated SINless population is 8% on top of that. Makes the most sense to me.
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Reaver

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« Reply #4 on: <10-26-16/0853:27> »
More proof the internetz is full of crazy, stupid people.
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HobDobson

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« Reply #5 on: <10-26-16/1050:47> »
http://liberaldarkness.com/2015/08/01/fire-ants-are-being-laced-with-homosexual-chemtrails-to-bite-christians-and-convert-them-to-homosexuality/
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« Reply #6 on: <10-26-16/1234:39> »
http://liberaldarkness.com/2015/08/01/fire-ants-are-being-laced-with-homosexual-chemtrails-to-bite-christians-and-convert-them-to-homosexuality/
Watch out for them homosex ants, people

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lokii

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« Reply #7 on: <10-26-16/1345:04> »
Am I missing how this is relevant to the topic? If not, could you please take it to another thread?

However, the numbers would be estimates, not exacts.

In the Facts at a Glance box in the new Metropole book, it lists the population as 188,736,519. That's a very exact number, so I'm inclined to agree with MM that this is the 'official' number, drawn from SIN records and other such things. The estimated SINless population is 8% on top of that. Makes the most sense to me.

I thought of that too, SIN records would give you an exact number. It is possible that the 8% estimate is added to the exact number without rounding the result to reflect the error margin. Also there are other infoboxes that give a rounded population number. Of course given fluctuations the exact number would soon be outdated, so you would expect an estimate anyway.

Aside from the correct interpretation, I think there are several problems with having additional y%.
  • It is easily confused with all the other percentage values that represent fractions.
  • The population number given isn't the actual estimate of population size.
  • Also the real estimate for SINless is a different number. (With Medicineman's numbers: 209 million with 19 million SINless means roughly 9% are SINless versus equal to 10% of people with SIN.)
  • All the other fractions (metatype distribution, poverty etc.) could be wrong. For example usually certain metatypes are either more or less likely to be SINless, meaning that they are under- or overrepresented in the population of SINners compared to the true population number.

But I would really like to hear from someone who creates these stats. Is there an official interpretation, maybe some kind of guideline?

Reaver

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« Reply #8 on: <10-26-16/1754:36> »
You could always try contacting the author.... Do  you know who wrote the book?
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lokii

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« Reply #9 on: <10-27-16/0902:31> »
You mean SiF:CbS:Metrópole? Olivier Gagnon wrote the book. But any author can chime in. If no one does and this really bothers me, I will take your advice. ;)